How many people should we tell the caterer are coming to the wedding?

Right now there are 86 people confirmed, but we have a pretty good sense that six of them might not show up. The dinner is buffet style, so either way there will be ample food for all. Would we be wrong to tell the caterer 80 people are attending?How many people should we tell the caterer are coming to the wedding?
You never wanna say less because they might give you small portions. It's always better to say more people. I would tell them 90 people, just in case cuz it won't look good if you run out of food.
Why on earth would anyone RSVP "yes" and not come? I think you need to trust them at their word and tell the caterer 86. If they then fail to show for no reason, let them know their behaviour was rude next time you see them.

EDIT: I realise last minute illness happens, but I am guessing we are talking at least 5 days before the wedding, not a day-of-the-wedding medical emergency. If there is an illness or emergency, these 6 people should still let you know. Perhaps you can even phone them. If it is a very serious or tragic emergency then it's not appropriate to phone, and you've just got to cater for them, because it would be most embarassing if they came and there wasn't a place for them.How many people should we tell the caterer are coming to the wedding?
Even though it is buffet style, some things like hor'deourves the caterers do count out two a piece per person kind of deal and charge you for this. Six people may be the difference between one more chicken breast being cooked, or how many heads of asparagus there will be. Caterers do try to accommodate for more than the expected number incase Aunt Joan who said she was coming alone decides to bring the guy she met last week, but it's always best to give the exact number of yes replies. Don't assume cause then it could make an awkward situation if for somethings they are short. Also with place settings six people is almost another full table. So I would give the exact amount.
Tell them that you have 86 Expected, and a guarantee of 80. Tell them what you told us. If they are good at what they do, they will be prepared for more than 86 (usually 5% over that). They will know what to do, they handle this all the time.

If you tell them 80, then the problem might be not the amount of food. If those 6 people do show up, where will they sit? Will they have a table?
How is the caterer charging for the buffet? If it's per person, maybe say 83? Split the difference? I've heard horror stories of caterers flipping out because more people showed up than they were planning for. It might be good to just explain that you expect 80 but there are 6 more who are iffy and see what they suggest.



Remember, the caterer isn't just being greedy. If the available food seems skimpy for the crowd involved and someone asks who catered the event, it could affect future business. People talk. Especially when they can be critical.
For the woman who dont understand why they would say yes, and not come.... Unfortunately people RSVP to events and do not show up. I did such a thing just this weekend. I had knee surgery, and I had planned on doing way better with the surgery than I am doing. I was just in too much pain to go to the wedding.



If you are being charged by the plate for food, give them the number you have confirmed. If you do not and they all show anyway, you run the risk of not having enough food.
You cater always for the amount of people invited, not a speculation number. While some people don't show up who RSVP yes, some people do show up who didn't RSVP at all.



If 86 are confirmed I would actually go above that number, to like 90 or 95.



Buffet doesn't mean ample or endless food.



Buffet will still be a buffet for the amount of people you have paid for and you could run out and not have enough for everyone (uber embarrassing)
It's better to have leftovers than not enough food. Tell the caterer that 86 are confirmed.
Tell the caterer how many have confirmed, an experienced caterer can make adjustments.
probably not - even if all 86 showed up unless a lot of people totally pig out you should have enough food